Tag Archives: marketing

Half of all Search expected to be Generative (AI) by 2028

Search Engines vs. Generative Engine Optimization (GEO): 2026–2031 Outlook

Industry: part of the fast-growing Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) category; search volume is projected to shift heavily toward AI answers by 2028.

Q3 2026 — Today

Google still holds ~78–88% of query volume/referrals (measure-dependent); top-ranking click-through has fallen sharply under AI Overviews. GEO market run-rate sits near $1.1–1.5B. Within AI chat, ChatGPT holds ~60–65% share, with Claude the fastest-growing challenger. Zero-click results already make up 43% of all searches, 93% inside Google’s AI Mode.

Q4 2026

Full-year mark for Gartner’s projected 25% decline in traditional search query volume. GEO vendor spend continues toward a $1.5–2B run-rate. AI-referred traffic converts at 14.2% vs. 2.8% for traditional organic. AI browsers (ChatGPT Atlas, Perplexity Comet, Dia) scale as primary front-ends rather than add-ons.

Q1–Q2 2027

Google likely keeps dominance on navigational, transactional, and local queries even as informational-query share keeps eroding. AI assistants push their share of informational queries past 15–20% toward the high-20s. GEO becomes a standard budget line rather than an experiment, and GEO measurement tools start standardizing, with early metrics appearing in platforms like Search Console.

Q3–Q4 2027

Traditional SERP-only sessions keep shrinking as answer-first UX becomes the default across major browsers. Forecasts point to roughly 30% of commercial queries being resolved entirely inside generative engines with no results page rendered at all. Per-platform strategy becomes essential, since ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, and Perplexity each surface and rank content differently.

2028 (Full Year)

Gartner’s upper-bound scenario has traditional search traffic down up to 50% from 2024 levels. Industry estimates converge near 50% of all searches being “generative” rather than a classic link list. GEO shifts firmly from “nice-to-have” to table-stakes for any content-driven business.

2029 (Full Year)

Google and Bing lean further into AI-native results pages, and the classic ten-blue-links format becomes a minority experience. The GEO services market keeps compounding at roughly 34–50% CAGR, and consolidation begins among GEO tooling vendors. AI-content-disclosure regulation and platform-specific GEO certifications start to emerge.

2030 (Full Year)

Traditional search engines reposition as one input among several inside broader “answer” ecosystems. The overall AI market approaches ~$826B, and GEO spend gets folded into standard marketing budgets as a default line item rather than a separate test. Hybrid SEO + GEO is now the accepted baseline for every digital-visibility team.

2031 (Full Year)

Traditional keyword search stays material for transactional and local intent but is no longer the primary discovery channel for research-type queries. The GEO services market reaches an estimated $4.1B–$7.3B (27.5–34% CAGR since 2024), with some models projecting even higher. Differentiated optimization playbooks per AI engine are now standard agency practice.

Note: public forecasts for this category vary widely by methodology — GEO’s 2031 market size ranges from $4.1B to $7.3B across sources, and Google’s share of query volume is reported anywhere from ~78% to ~89% depending on whether AI Overviews/AI Mode sessions count as “Google” or as GEO. Figures above use the midpoints of the most-cited 2026 industry reports (Gartner, Similarweb, Valuates, Mobility Foresights) and should be read as directional, not exact.

Somebody is going to build the DMOZ Open Directory for AI Search

The Open Directory, Reimagined for AI Search

A Feasibility and Business Plan for an AI-Era Web Directory

I. The Opportunity

In the 1990s, the Open Directory Project (DMOZ) became an authority signal: Yahoo used it to populate a hand-curated web directory, and early Google gave real weight to sites listed there because a human editor had vouched for them. AI answer engines now play a similar gatekeeping role, and the same gap exists again.

  • Citation concentration is extreme — current research on AI answer engines finds that a small handful of domains, chiefly Reddit, Wikipedia, YouTube, and LinkedIn, account for the large majority of citations across ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, and Claude, leaving most legitimate businesses, nonprofits, and niche experts effectively invisible in AI-generated answers.
  • There is no verified trust layer for AI the way DMOZ once was for search; volunteer editors used to vouch that a site was real, correctly categorized, and legitimate, and no equivalent structured, human-vetted registry exists for today’s answer engines.
  • llms.txt is a map, not a directory — the emerging llms.txt convention only lets a site describe itself to a crawler; it carries no independent third-party authority, and as of 2026 no major AI lab has publicly committed to acting on it in production.
  • GEO spending is already flowing into an unproven category, as brands react to falling click-through and rising zero-click AI answers by paying for optimization services; that budget is actively searching for a credible, structural answer.
  • The underlying need is unmet: a neutral, categorized, independently verified registry of who exists, what they do, and how to confirm it is precisely the kind of third-party, structured source that answer engines are built to prefer over marketing copy.

II. How It Would Be Structured

  • A hierarchical taxonomy organized the way DMOZ was — industry, sub-industry, specialty, and locality — but designed from day one around entity resolution rather than link browsing.
  • Structured data comes first: every listing is published simultaneously as a human-readable page and as schema.org/JSON-LD markup, so machines can parse it without inference.
  • A verified editorial layer combining paid category editors with vetted volunteer editors, mirroring DMOZ’s model, confirms accuracy, ownership, and category placement before anything goes live.
  • An open, licensable feed — a free bulk data download plus a paid real-time API — explicitly invites AI labs, researchers, and startups to ingest the dataset, the same way DMOZ’s RDF dump once seeded early search engines.
  • Citation-ready summaries on every listing: a short, fact-dense paragraph written specifically to be lifted cleanly into a generated answer, rather than marketing prose an AI has to rewrite.
  • Visible provenance signals — last-verified date, responsible editor, and a public changelog — give both AI systems and human reviewers a confidence signal that current search results and social platforms do not offer.

III. The Business Model

  • Freemium verified listings: a basic listing is free to maximize coverage, while a paid annual Verified/Premium tier adds priority review, richer schema fields, and monthly re-verification.
  • Data licensing to AI companies — a paid bulk feed and API sold to AI labs, GEO tool vendors, and enterprise data platforms, comparable to how stock-media libraries license structured content to model builders.
  • A citation-monitoring subscription as a SaaS add-on, showing listed businesses where and how often they are cited across ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, and Claude, cross-sold to every paying listing.
  • Disclosed category sponsorships placed clearly apart from organic listings, functioning like legacy directory advertising without compromising the trust the directory depends on.
  • Affiliate and referral revenue from verified traffic sent to partner services in categories such as legal, financial, home services, and healthcare.

IV. Cost and Team to Launch

  • A lean six-person launch team: one editor-in-chief, two category editors, two engineers, and one business-development lead is enough to build and seed the first vertical.
  • A first-year budget near $650,000 covers payroll, editorial tooling, hosting, legal review of licensing terms, and hand-verification of the first 20,000 to 50,000 listings.
  • A volunteer editor network modeled directly on the original Open Directory Project keeps category coverage growing without a payroll expense — the real cost is vetting time, not cash.
  • Infrastructure is the cheap part: hosting, database, and API costs run a few thousand dollars a month at launch scale, since the build is closer to a structured content system than a search index.
  • Legal costs are not optional: budget real money for licensing agreements, data-use terms, and defamation and liability review, because deciding who counts as authoritative is inherently a publishing decision with legal exposure.

V. Revenue Potential

  • Premium listings at scale: 25,000 premium listings at $300 to $600 a year is $7.5 million to $15 million in annual recurring revenue once the directory reaches meaningful scale, realistically in year two or three.
  • Data licensing is the bigger prize: a small number of AI labs and GEO platforms paying five to six figures a year each for a clean, licensed feed could match or exceed listing revenue with far fewer accounts to manage.
  • Citation monitoring compounds revenue: cross-selling a $50 to $150 monthly tracking product to even 10% of paying listings adds meaningful recurring revenue with almost no incremental acquisition cost.
  • Year-one revenue will be modest, realistically low six figures while trust and coverage are being built — this is a multi-year asset play, not a quick return.
  • The real value is the dataset itself: the most likely path to a large payoff is acquisition of the verified corpus by an AI lab, data broker, or search company, not subscription revenue alone.

VI. Where to Start

  • Pick one vertical first — launch inside a single underserved, high-intent category such as licensed contractors, medical practices, or B2B software vendors, rather than attempting broad coverage the way the original ODP did.
  • Build the schema before the front end: get the JSON-LD data model and verification workflow right first, since the machine-facing feed matters more at launch than a polished consumer website.
  • Recruit founding editors publicly through open applications, transparent editorial guidelines, and public credit — exactly as DMOZ did — to build a volunteer base cheaply and legitimately.
  • Seed the corpus by hand: personally verify the first 1,000 to 2,000 listings before any self-serve submission opens, to set an unmistakable quality bar from day one.
  • Publish the feed immediately once a defensible core dataset exists — release a free bulk download or lightweight API right away so AI crawlers and researchers can start pulling from and citing it, instead of waiting for a “finished” product that never arrives.

Do Not try to Game GEO / AEO doing gimmicky things

I was trading text messages with someone this morning, and then I realized something that I hadn’t thought about before.

They were sharing with me an idea somebody had for gaming AI search by doing shady GEO AEO things.

This is how I responded:

“Eventually, AI will start banning companies or reducing their rankings when they detect companies are trying to game their systems. I didn’t think about that until this morning. Same thing happened with SEO, one minute you are at the top of Altavista in 1997, the next minute your domain is banned or relegated to page 2. That was a typical penalty back in the day, a 10-position demotion, so if you were 1, you became 11. So the best things to do instead are transparent non-gaming things that won’t get you penalized.”

Marketing Plan for WithCoverage: Insights from a Simulated 100-Person Focus Group

AI, prompted correctly, can help generate marketing plans that hold up in practice. The method: simulate a 100-person focus group split into 20 breakout rooms of 5, gather their deliberations, then merge everything into unified recommendations – distilled into a one-pager and a longer 5-20 page report.

See a sample – WithCoverage (unaffiliated demo). Message me for the full report.

Marketing Plan for Energy Substantiation: Insights from a Simulated 100-Person Focus Group

With the right prompting, AI can help produce marketing plans that actually hold up. My approach: simulate a 100-person focus group discussing the company, split into 20 breakout rooms of 5 for deliberation, then merge everyone’s input into unified recommendations. That gets distilled into a full report (5-20 pages) plus a one-pager.

As a demo, here’s an unaffiliated example – Energy Substantiation to test the prompts. Contact me for the longer version.

Insights from a Simulated 100-Person Focus Group to create an Immigify marketing plan

Many AI-generated marketing plans are throwaway junk – the fix isn’t a better tool, it’s a better prompt. Rather than asking an AI to just hand over recommendations, I get it to role-play an entire focus group: 100 simulated participants weighing in on the company. But they don’t all talk at once. I break them into 20 small clusters of 5, shuffled at random, and let each cluster debate independently before pooling everyone’s input into one synthesized set of concrete, actionable recommendations.

What comes out the other end is a report running 5 to 20 pages, but I never stop there. I always boil it back down into a tight one-pager afterward.

Case in point: the 1-page summary of Immigify’s marketing plan – a longer writeup exists too, just ask. Absolutely no affiliation with the company, just one picked at random to try out my new mousetrap.

Adaptive Insurance Marketing Plan: Insights from a Simulated 100-Person Focus Group

Here’s something I didn’t expect: AI actually gets good at helping with marketing strategy once you stop asking it questions and start giving it a scenario. My trick is simulating a focus group – 100 fictional participants, split randomly into 20 breakout rooms of five – all debating the company from different angles. Each room deliberates on its own first. Then I pull everyone back together and have their combined input distilled into a unified set of recommendations. What comes out the other end is a report somewhere between 5 and 20 pages, plus a condensed 1-pager for anyone who wants the short version.

Let me show you how it plays out, using a company I have zero connection to: Adaptive Insurance. Bigger report available upon request.